Tuesday, March 01, 2005

A Farewell to Kyoto

The Kyoto Protocol, it would seem, is finally dead – the US, Russia, China, India, and Italy have all either withdrawn from the treaty process entirely, or refused to be bound by emissions restrictions. So, is this a good thing, or are we just speeding towards environmental destruction? I’ll try to explain.

First, and most importantly, humans do not cause global temperature change – it has merely been posited that we do. In reality, the earth has small natural warming and cooling cycles enclosed in larger ones. In the 20th century, the earth warmed from 1900 to 1940, then cooled from 1940 to 1975 (during the early 70s, many of today’s global warming alarmists were convinced that we were on the verge of another ice age). From 1975 to 1979 the world warmed again. Since 1979, the world has cooled just slightly. The larger cycles include ice ages (the world has continued to warm since the last ice age).

The international groups with a stake in the global warming theory have worked hard to cover up contrary evidence. In the UN’s 1996 report on global warming, the following two lines were deleted from the final draft:

1. "None of the studies cited above has shown clear evidence that we can attribute the observed climate changes to increases in greenhouse gases."
2. "No study to date has positively attributed all or part of the climate change to…man-made causes."

The Danish statistics professor, Bjorn Lomborg was an environmentalist who believed that humans were destroying the world. Then he decided to do a little research and in 1998 published The Skeptical Environmentalist. Among his discoveries: the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) was ready to report that “the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernable human influence on global climate.” In the April 2000 draft the uncertainty was removed: “There has been a discernable human influence on global climate.” In the October 2000 draft this was changed to “it is likely that increasing concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases have contributed substantially to the observed warming over the past 50 years.” The official summary (the thing that the press and policy-makers read) finally said “most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.” The New Scientist asked UN spokesman Tim Higham if there was any new science to support the report’s new stronger wording. He responded, “There was no new science, but the scientists wanted to present a clear and strong message to policy makers.”

The IPCC’s finding that we have even a “discernable” effect on global climate is flawed in many ways. As the atmospheric physicist Dr. Fred Singer explains, there are three main methods that we use to measure global temperature: Surface measurements, weather balloons, and satellites. The satellite and weather balloon measurements are in close agreement and show a slight cooling over the past 20 years. The surface measurements show a temperature increase. The problem with the surface measurements, though, is 1) that they only measure a tiny part of the earth and leave the oceans essentially unmeasured, and 2) that the sensors are normally placed near cities, which are warmer than the surrounding countryside because of the greater industry there. Nevertheless, satellites are not even mentioned in the IPCC report summary, and the computer models tend to be based on surface measurements. Dr. Lomborg writes in The Skeptical Environmentalist that the IPCC computer models no longer even claim to be predicting the future. There are now 40 computer “scenarios,” all different, and not a single one is capable of explaining past global temperature changes. The big problem there is that our models do not include the effects of clouds and similar forcings. We do not yet know how all these things effect the climate, and, even if we did, our computers are not powerful enough to include these factors in their models.

What we are left with are a bunch of inaccurate computer models, on the basis of which the IPCC predicts that the temperature increase in the next hundred years will be from 1.4° to 5.8° Celsius. (If the IPCC had not used its most pessimistic computer models for this assessment, the range would most likely be from 1.2° to 4.8° Celsius.) The mainstream media proved little help to the public here – CNN, CBS, The Times, and Time all reduced the IPCC numbers from a range to a single figure: 5.8° C.

The environmentalist ‘scientists’ at the IPCC and other research groups have pushed to get the right kind of results. Richard Lindzen, and American atmospheric physicist stated, “throughout the drafting sessions, [the UN’s IPCC] 'coordinators' would go around insisting that criticism of models be toned down, and that 'motherhood' statements be inserted to the effect that models might still be correct despite the cited faults. Refusals were occasionally met with ad hominem attacks. I personally witnessed coauthors forced to assert their 'green' credentials in defense of their statements…” Bjorn Lomborg himself was accused of scientific dishonesty regarding his book, and initially ruled against by The Danish Committee on Scientific Dishonesty before he was vindicated completely on appeal.

So now we finally arrive at the Kyoto protocol itself, which demands drastic reductions in carbon dioxide output. First, do we even know that CO2 is a culprit? Bjorn Lomborg demonstrated that solar activity is more closely correlated to temperature than is carbon dioxide output.

The people behind the treaty have failed to demonstrate whether any link between CO2 levels and global climate show CO2 as the cause or the effect. Dr. Singer related a story about one of the most prominent alarmists: former VP Al Gore. Gore used to be fond of displaying a chart showing the temperatures in the Antarctic ice core and the global CO2 levels together. He would tell the audience that whenever the CO2 levels went up, the temperature went up as a result. A 1999 paper in Science later showed him to be wrong, when they reported that they had gotten adequate resolution to be able to see whether the temperature increases or CO2 increases came first. They determined that the rise in CO2 levels was preceded by the temperature increase by a mere 600 years. When temperatures rise, the ocean and the earth itself releases more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

Let us suppose, for a moment, that the IPCC predictions are actually correct, and then (to continue assuming according to their models) that reducing CO2 would in fact reduce global temperature. What effect will the Kyoto protocol have on global warming? If we go back the original, full-power treaty (that is, we include the United States and the other countries that have now dropped out) and if the entire world were to observe that treaty completely, the UN Science Advisory Council admits that, by the year 2050, the expected temperature increase would be reduced by just 0.05° C. If we were to enforce the treaty until the year 2100, different models indicate that the temperature increase would be reduced by 0.13° to 0.15° Celsius. To put it another way, the Kyoto treaty will, by the year 2100, reduce the sea level rise the IPCC expects by a grand total of one inch. It will delay the temperature rise they expect, again by the year 2100 for six years, so that the temperature with Kyoto in 2100 will be the same as the temperature without Kyoto in the year 2094. Dr. Lomborg points out that because of this fact we will be forced to pay for global warming twice -- not only will we have to pay the costs of Kyoto, we will also be paying the full price of the eventual climate change.

The main reason why Kyoto is so ineffective, even if we agree to use the IPCC computer modeling, is because the treaty was designed to restrict the CO2 output only of developed countries. Third world countries, including the two largest countries in the world, population wise (China and India) would be allowed to continue producing as much carbon dioxide as they wanted. What the protocol really amounts to, then, is a tremendous cost to developed countries with no real environmental benefits -- the country taking the biggest hit would be (surprise) the US. The OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development) estimates that the cost of Kyoto to developed countries would be 2% of GDP per year by 2050, and 4% of GDP per year by 2100. Tom DeWeese reports that Kyoto could cost the US seven million jobs in 14 years. Also from Tom DeWeese’s piece on global warming: “The Department of Energy has estimated that electricity prices could rise 86 percent -- and gasoline prices 53 percent.”

Back in 1989, two scientists announced that they had achieved cold fusion. This turned out later to be false, but for some months we lived with the illusion that we would soon have access to essentially unlimited, clean power. Instead of being thrilled at the prospect of getting rid of dirty energy sources, environmentalists were horrified. Dr. Lomborg documents several examples from an article in the April 1989 Los Angeles Times: Environmentalist Jeremy Rifkin said that is was “the worst thing that could happen to our planet.” The Times wrote: “Inexhaustible power, [Rifkin] argues, only gives man infinite ability to exhaust the planet’s resources.” One environmentalist, UC Berkley anthropologist Laura Nader, finally got to the real point, telling The Times that “many people just assume that cheaper, more abundant, energy will mean that mankind is better off, but there is no evidence for that.” She doesn’t care about the environment -- she is concerned about your lifestyle.

The cold fusion incident back in 1989 is similar to the obviously ineffective Kyoto protocol. It demonstrates that what these environmentalists really want is to redefine the way we live. The IPCC’s 2001 report essentially admits this: “Raising awareness among media professionals of the need for greenhouse gas mitigation and the role of the media in shaping lifestyles and aspirations could be an effective way to encourage a wider cultural shift.” The environmentalists want to move away from consumer-driven economies and institute a system of world socialism, where rich countries subsidize the poor ones until we are all more-or-less equal. Inefficient countries will be protected by the efficient ones -- the United States will share the wealth she earns completely with the rest of the world. You’d better be glad that this policy has failed utterly -- if it hadn’t, you might well have found yourself trading in your car for a bicycle, so you could help pedal the world into the next century.

-Republican Dan Gelernter

"Buenos Aires: Kyoto's Waterloo." Tech Central Station 17 Dec. 2004. http://www.techcentralstation.com/121704C.html.

Sanera, Michael, and Jane S. Shaw. Facts Not Fear. Washington, DC: Regnery Inc., 1996.
"There is No Man-Made Global Warming." NewsWithViews.com 16 Dec. 2004. http://www.newswithviews.com/DeWeese/tom23.htm.

The Skeptical Environmentalist. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge UP, 2001.


At 10:00 AM, Blogger Kyle said...

Looks interesting... I'll read it later today and formulate a witty, yet factual response.

At 11:06 AM, Blogger Republican Dan said...

Kyle, the only witty yet factual response you could post would run like this:
Dan, you are completely right.
Yours very truly,

At 4:40 PM, Blogger Kyle said...

First off, you are completely correct - the majority of the official surface temperatures are taken near cities which suffer from the "urban island heating effect" (in other words, they're warmer than outlying areas). What you fail to mention is that this urban island effect does indeed affect the weather near the cities. For instance, locations near the cities typically receive more thunderstorms than those further away.

You also fail to mention the satellite data and the ground data are very similar to each other in the middle latitudes, which is where you and I are right now. It's also where much of the industrial development is. Interesting, isn’t it?

Another problem with that satellite data... it has a very short record when compared to surface measurements. Events such as El Nino, La Nina, and other oscillations throughout the world can skew the data easily.

You also seem to be of the impression that the Kyoto Protocol would only call for the lowering of carbon dioxide, which is just one of many greenhouse gases. The Kyoto Protocol targets more than just carbon dioxide.

Perhaps the Kyoto Protocol isn’t enough to save the Earth from warming, but if that is the case, doesn’t that just further the reason to embrace it? Baby steps are significantly easier to handle than leaps, and if we’re going to reduce greenhouse gasses, perhaps it’s better to do so little by little. If the U.S. doesn’t even embrace the Kyoto Protocol, there’s no chance whatsoever that it would accept anything more strict, and that could prove to be a very bad thing in the long run.

I’ll have a much more detailed response later, but for now I have to go tend to some other more urgent work.

At 8:56 PM, Blogger Megan said...

Ok, so I don't really have much time to respond, but I somehow stumbled upon your blog the other day and couldn't resist leaving a remark. Now I feel somehow indebted to respond. Interestingly enough, I will be introducing a unit on argument (fallacies, appeals, some rhetorical theory, etc.) to my class tomorrow (I am a PhD student in American Lit. at TCU down in good ole Texas and teach a couple sections of composition), and your piece has sparked some interesting lines of thought (as well as some examples of fallacies!). I always love teaching this unit, and so I am frequently looking for examples of "real life" arguments on current controversial issues. Although I may disagree with many of your political beliefs, I love that you seem to be so passionate about global/national issues. (And to be quite honest, I did vote for Dubya in 2000--ah, the shame!) :-) In any case, I find it interesting that you use such a controversial figure as Dr. Lomburg as the basis for a significant portion of your argument. Well, I hate to cut off now, but I have some reading to get done.

At 4:37 PM, Anonymous Leila said...

Although I look at your sources and immediately see that they are biased (Facts not Fear!!), I would like to point out that if you WERE correct about humans not causing higher temperatures, then you still must consider the other effects we ARE having on the environment. What about the massive amounts of pollution let of by our transportation and factories daily? The ozone layer is steadily thinning out. There is no way you can say that human existence and the technology we have created are not affecting this world's environment. The weather is not the only factor. The ozone layer, the trees we destroy, the animal's houses we demolish. All of these may seem negligent, but they are small factors that bit by bit are eating away at our world's well-being.

Sorry--just had to comment. I'm a tree hugger. :)

At 5:33 PM, Blogger Republican Dan said...

Do you suggest that it is biased to rely on facts as opposed to fear? And do you further believe that you can judge the contents of a book and their degree of honesty by the title? I will soon, it seems, have to write a piece on the other aspects of the environment (specifically, how we are not destroying the ozone layer, neither are we choking our atmosphere or eliminating the forrest as we know it. In the meantime, what and where are your sources?

At 7:47 PM, Blogger Kyle said...

Leila - awesome points. And yes, all those things you mention do indeed affect the weather as well, so it's a double-edged sword indeed.

Dan - rather than respond directly to your article, I will write my own about how we ARE screwing over the enviornment. Don't worry - I won't use biased sources either.

At 5:48 PM, Anonymous Leila said...

To tell the truth, your comment blew my mind.
(1) Are you truly suggesting all the research that has been done over the years by numerous environmentalists and other officials are all completely erroneous?! Have they all completely fabricated a story of human beings damaging the environment?

(2)I did a bit of research on your book, by the way. Fred Seitz and Sallie Baliunas, who review the chapter on ozone, have worked with the George C. Marshall Institute, which is funded by conservative foundations like Bradley and Scaife. M.B. Hocking, another of the experts, formerly worked for Dow Chemical. Donald Stedman has written for Heritage and worked for Ford Motor Company.

(3)Deforestation-- We are cutting down trees EVERY day to provide more land for our own purposes. We build malls, grocery stores, and movie theatres in their place. I see this happening every day, since I live in the second fastest growing county in the U.S. (in Georgia, unfortunately).

(4)Pollution, global warming, and the ozone layer--Pollution from substances like CFCs and methyl bromide come from increased car exhaust fumes and burning of fossil fuels in power plants. This means that we humans, do have an effect, because it is our cars that release these gases, which have contributed to the depletion of the ozone layer.

(5) I'm appalled that you refuse to believe the effect humans are having on this Earth. There is no way that our prescnce goes without any change on the environment.

P.S. Thanks, Kyle! :)

A. United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (15 September 2004) Climate Change 2001: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability [Online]http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/664.htm

B. http://www.prwatch.org/prwissues/2000Q2/fearnotfacts.html

At 6:24 PM, Blogger Kyle said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

At 6:27 PM, Blogger Kyle said...

To further build on what Leila says let me propose the following:

1) Ozone depletion: I have never seen a publication of any sort deny that the Ozone layer has not been depleted. I've look at three different textbooks, one regular book, and numerous online sources. Surely that can't all be wrong now can they? Especially when each textbook was written by different authors who are associated with completely different universities.

2) Deforestation. Try this: We know that CO2 is a greenhouse gas. It is a fact that CO2 plays a significant role in warming the Earth. We also know that trees, as well as other plants, go through a process called photosynthesis. During this process, CO2 is removed from the atmosphere and oxygen is released. Oxygen by itself is NOT a greenhouse gas. So the fewer trees there are, the greater the amount of CO2 will be in the atmosphere, due to simple logic. Also keep in mind that wood is about half carbon. Therefore, when the forests are burned down, even more carbon is released into the atmosphere. Oops.

Here are the books I was talking about, I have neither the time nor the desire to put these in any official citation form:

1. Understanding Weather & Climate by Edward Aguado and James E. Burt. Published in 2004.

2. Meteorology Today by C. Donald Ahrens.

3. A World of Weather by Jon Nese and Lee Grenci

4. The Complete Idiot's Guide to Weather by Dr. Mel Goldstein

5. The United States Environmental Protection Agency (direct link: http://www.epa.gov/oar/oaqps/gooduphigh/ozone.html)

At 3:19 AM, Blogger Republican Dan said...

Dear Kyle and Leila,
I will be writing another piece soon to completely destroy all of your points. Unfortunatley, though, I have to go to school now. In a few days though I should have the new one up. To Kyle specifically: I am glad you are reading The Complete Idiot's Guide to Weather -- at least you know where to start.

At 11:22 AM, Blogger Kyle said...

Yes Dan, everyone has to begin somewhere, and I did so a few years ago. I included it to further back my statement that MANY people agree on these facts of life.

I'll be interested to see what your "rebuttal" is...

At 12:20 PM, Blogger Kyle said...

Dan, Dan, Dan... a new look on the satellite data has been discovered:


At 7:00 PM, Blogger SinaMoravej said...

hey, about abortion... im for it
what if the girl was raped? why should she be forced to carry a living memory? what if having the baby poses a health risk to the mother and/or the baby

At 3:21 AM, Blogger Republican Dan said...

I would make abortion legal in the case of rape or if the baby threatened the mother's life.

At 1:28 PM, Blogger Gnack said...

Good piece. For more of this kind of information, I would suggest reading Micheal Crichton new book "State of Fear". He did tons (three years worth) of research to back up this similiar claim.

At 5:18 PM, Blogger Dan said...

The only thing I have to add about this is about deforestation. Growing trees use more carbon dioxide than mature trees. Maybe we should cut down some forests and then plant new trees to help suck all the carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere!

At 8:55 AM, Anonymous Lucian said...

hey, my name is lucian, perhaps you have heard of me, anyway I like a lot of what you have to say. You can IM me @ vonbismark829. By the way read Winning the Future and Death of the West the former by Newt Gingrich the latter by Pat Buchanan, both, especially Pat have more integrity than other pundits. Thanks ttyl.

At 7:37 PM, Blogger SMSgt Mac said...

Rep. Dan,
The quality of your Trolls makes this site just too good to pass up, even if I didn't enjoy your site so much. I'm moving you out of my general blog list (those where I just peek in on from time to time) and into the "Best" category (those I read daily). I can hardly wait for you to hear back from these "experts" that popped in. While Kyle the factoid boy, with his apparent inability to tell the difference between weather and climate is interesting, I can hardly wait for the Ninja Lit Major to return with her phantom fallacies. C'mon guys, give Rep. Dan something worthwhile to shoot at.

At 11:33 PM, Blogger jon said...

buying textbook are so expensive. I agree, We have been looking for buying textbook all night for a new buying textbook class but havent been able to track down used buying textbook that I can afford. Anyway, I enjoyed looking at you buying textbook blog...


At 5:15 PM, Blogger Roberto Iza Valdes said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

At 9:46 PM, Blogger Daniel said...

Yours By Design Heating and Cooling is a full service Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) contractor based in Blaine, MN
installing residential heating and air and commercial heating and air.**Heating****Cooling**wood heatingwood heating

At 10:53 PM, Blogger Roberto Iza Valdes said...

¡Próspero año nuevo!


Post a Comment

<< Home